Has air travel logic changed?

2022-06-11 0 By

A few days ago, medicine man shared with you his view of air travel “It’s time to adjust”.I believe that the current air travel industry should not be too pessimistic, and mentioned that if you are optimistic about air travel friends can use travel ETF instead.But our number of fans friends can be smart, directly to me to ask questions, this index seems to have been so many years of shock ah, the feeling is not how good?In view of the exponential question, that is, of course, I give you a summary.First to know about the index, index of tourism under the tourism ETF tracking is from Shanghai and shenzhen markets to select no more than 50 business involving tourism accommodation, sightseeing, tourism, shopping, entertainment, tourism, comprehensive services, tourism, travel, tourism, catering and tourism in the tourism industry chain, such as real estate development of listed companies.To make a plan, I will briefly mention: ① Select all the tourism industry chain industries mentioned above as samples; ② Select the top 50 securities according to the ranking from high to low in terms of the average daily market value of the past year; ③ The weight factor is between 0 and 1, so that the weight of a single sample does not exceed 15%.In addition, the total weight of the sample with low proportion of tourism travel, tourism catering, tourism real estate development and tourism-related business does not exceed 40%, and the total weight of the top five samples does not exceed 60%.Stocks now 30, the first ten positions as follows, jinjiang hotel, China will exempt, songcheng acting for the first three positions, in addition, the remaining stocks airport aviation accounts for more check index the warehouse record, I found that the index there is a big change in April last year, large quantities of into aviation airport, change after this time,To expand the number of stocks in the index to 30, compared with around 18 before this adjustment.Such a big change can only prove that the index company has revised the index compilation. As shown in the figure below, The China Securities Index Company widened the stock selection scope of the index in April last year. Assuming that the index was included in airports from the beginning, what would happen to the index?At Tongda, I compiled the latest stocks into an index to track historical net worth.The following figure shows the trend of this index from September 2015 to now. It will fluctuate widely, but on the whole it will fluctuate upward. When comparing with the China Securities Tourism Index, the overall excess return is obvious.Just need to separate the end of April last year after the replacement of the weight of the trend of China Securities travel superposition again is no problem, as shown in the following figure, the overall trend of the basic coincidence, therefore, purely from the index to replace the weight of this factor, looking to the future, the index probability can maintain a shock upward trend, the reason is very simple.Compared with the previous pure hotel, culture and travel these optional consumer components, is more cyclical.The expansion of the stock selection range, including travel services, etc., to a certain extent, weakened the periodicity, but enhanced certain growth, growth, in the long run, it is to go up. This is also the main reason why we think that friends who do not choose stocks, optimistic about air travel, can choose this index as a substitute.The problem of oscillation for many years was solved in this way, but we look back at the history of the China Securities Travel Index.Although the overall shock, but each time the bottom of the rebound is not small, I have a cursory look, each time there is at least 20% to 40% of the increase, sometimes we invest in an industry, do not necessarily say investment for many years, because the industry logic often changes, every industry has a certain cyclical.Most of the time, people are looking at a change of a year or two.Then the industry logic is more favorable, in the low buy, when up to a certain extent, will sell cash.Such is the case with the recent bounce in China Securities Travel.Let me give you a recap. At that time, it was mainly the mutation of the epidemic that produced a new virus — Omicron.However, it was found that omicron, although more widespread in transmission, was much less toxic. At the same time, other countries began to open up one after another. At that time, the market expected a strong recovery from the epidemic.So in the case of air travel actual haven’t restore, index Dally up 20% +, namely the phase I painted in the image below (1) after the rebound, many stocks share price basic repair to around 80% of the level before the outbreak, but as a result of actual stocks did not return to normal operations, then short-term overheating, some of the funds to choose cash earnings, then the callback,Stage ② and the recent correction is in a new stage ③, mainly due to the small scale outbreak of domestic epidemic again.The logic of air travel at the present stage is actually contradictory. After the market game normalizes the epidemic (the superimposed fatality rate is greatly reduced) — the epidemic prevention and control policies will be relaxed — the industry prosperity recovers. However, the domestic epidemic continues to repeat, and our epidemic prevention policies are still not relaxed at the margin.As a result, some conservative funds are worried about the delay in the recovery of air travel.However, optimistic capital thinks that after nearly two years of strict prevention and control, the price is too big, and the epidemic prevention policy will still have inflection point, so the short-term trend of tourism index will be relatively repeated.There are two best ways to deal with short-term travel, the low order strategy or the grid strategy, and both of these strategies are available to you.The tourism investment strategy has gone through two phases. In the first phase, we bought a deal at a low level in December last year, and then it rose to a high level and cashed in. After successive adjustments, we started the second phase of tourism investment — Restart the tourism ETF investment!The grid strategy has also been shared and has been running for some time. The travel ETF peaked at 1.164 before selling out by one grid, and the pullback has since bought back positions.Outbreak of the whole, a short period of time to the most pessimistic time as the bottom of the grid, restore to the level as the top of the grid designed before the grid price range is reasonable tourism ETF automated grid trading menu at the bottom of the pharmacist in writing, the grid cast surely – automated grid trading the assumption ten thousand do travel ETF fund grid,The current need to buy 6016 yuan of bottom warehouse, about 60% of the positions..